New York // The UN’s nuclear watchdog has cleared the way for the lifting of international sanctions against Iran, which will have far-reaching implications for the region and Tehran’s expanding role in it.
The International Atomic Energy Agency said on Saturday that its “inspectors on the ground verified that Iran has carried out all measures required under the [July nuclear deal] ... to enable Implementation Day to occur”.
Earlier in the day, US secretary of state John Kerry and the EU’s top diplomat, Federica Mogherini, had met with their Iranian counterpart, Javad Zarif, in separate talks in Vienna.
“Our region has been freed from [the] shadow of an unnecessary conflict that could have caused concerns for the region,” Mr Zarif said, speaking to widely-held fears that if the deal failed then
the United States or its allies would resort to military measures to take out Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
“Today is also a good day for the world. Today will prove that we can solve important problems through diplomacy.”
While the IAEA’s certification was still being ironed out on Saturday afternoon, Iran released four Iranian-Americans being held in its prisons, including Jason Rezaian, the Washington Post bureau chief.
Six Iranian-Americans and one Iranian convicted in the US reportedly for violating nuclear sanctions on Iran were also freed.
Under the terms of the historic nuclear deal, Iran accepted strict curbs for up to 15 years on the aspects of its nuclear programme that could be used for building a bomb, in exchange for the lifting of all nuclear-related economic and banking sanctions by the European Union, UN economic sanctions and key US sanctions that forbade other countries from buying oil or doing business with Iran.
Most economic sanctions preventing US companies from doing business with Iran will remain in place as well as US terrorism and military sanctions.
However, the UN Security Council resolution that will go into effect only states that Iran will be “called upon” to cease all work on ballistic missiles designed to carry a nuclear warhead for eight years. Critics say the language is not binding, and Iran itself has proceeded with ballistic missile research and testing on missiles that are capable of delivering nuclear weapons but, according to Iranian officials, are not specifically designed to do so.
Iran will not be allowed to sell weapons for five years, under the terms of the resolution, but ballistic missile technology and large conventional weapons systems can be sold to Tehran with Security Council approval. US officials have said they would veto such sales.
Upon implementation, Iran will receive up to US$100 billion (Dh367bn) in frozen oil assets, though the exact figure is disputed, with US treasury officials saying it will be closer to $50bn. It is also unclear to what ends the immediate windfall will be used by Iran.
Gulf Arab countries and Israel fear that the money will go directly to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and increase an emboldened Iran’s ability to project power in the region, which may mollify Iranian hardliners who have opposed the nuclear deal. Iran’s relatively moderate elected government of President Hassan Rouhani will hope the funds will be used immediately to bolster Iran’s ragged economy, and that there will be tangible economic results ahead of important national elections next month.
The newly liquid cash may also be added to Iran’s foreign currency reserves to prop up the rial against falling oil prices, economic experts have said.
Regardless of the impact of the unfrozen assets, the longer-term implications of the deal will have profound consequences for Iran’s growing international legitimacy, economic and political relations with the world, as well as its expanding role in the Middle East and the intensifying rivalry with Saudi Arabia.
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